UPDATE: Severe weather possible Tuesday

Severe weather threat begins after 12AM Tuesday & increases by morning commute

By Marcus Bagwell | mbagwell@nexstar.tv

Published 11/16 2015 04:46PM

Updated 11/17 2015 05:17AM

Copyright 2015 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Our Meteorologists are closely monitoring the weather as it will be a bumpy next 18-24 hours in East Texas. You’ll want to remain weather aware as severe weather looks likely.

11PM Update from Meteorologist Marcus Bagwell:

A Tornado Watch was issued for North & Central Texas until 3AM. This does not include any East Texas counties.

Forecast models are indicating the possibility of discrete storms forming ahead of the main line, which is why the Tornado Watch was issued. See the video below for how a high resolution forecast model plays out the storms in Central Texas. These storms still look to arrive in East Texas toward daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday AM 11-17-15 Updated Storm Timing

This the latest update from a high resolution forecast model for Tuesday morning.It shows discrete storms developing in Central Texas after 1AM and meeting up with the line of storms coming in from the West. That's why a Tornado Watch is in effect for North/Central Texas.As we progress toward daybreak in East Texas, the line of storms will be moving in.Could East Texas see some discrete storms ahead of the line? It's possible, but models show little of that occurring.We'll keep you updated through the overnight. www.myeasttex.com/weather

Posted by Meteorologist Marcus Bagwell on Monday, November 16, 2015


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Let’s look ahead to what’s on tap for the next 24 hours…



Short term forecast models continue to indicate that an increase in area showers and embedded thunderstorms will be across East Texas through early evening (Image 2). We still do not have any reason to think that these storms will be severe—however, we will be keeping an eye on them.

Late evening and into the night, the models indicate a heavy line of storms forming just Southwest of the Metroplex and into northwest Central Texas. While this is not the main line, sufficient wind energy could warrant a few of these storms to become severe. These storms are forecasted to move NE toward the Red River and not directly affect us. However, we could see more rainfall move in after 12AM (Image 3).



This is when the weather will turn active. First off, you’ll note that on the previous image at 1AM Tuesday that a line of storms was moving east from West Texas. This will be line of storms that we will be monitoring.

By 3AM, this line is nearing the Metroplex (Image 4). However, note that more storms are forming ahead of the main line. This could mean an increased chance at damaging winds as the line of storms approach. You’ll also note for East Texas that showers and storms will be increasing from the Southwest.


DAYBREAK TUESDAY through Late Morning:

Between 6AM & 8AM, forecast models have the line of storms moving through and out of DFW, headed for East Texas (Image 5). This particular model is different from the previous images, so I anticipate that additional storms will be ahead of the main line.

From the morning commute through early afternoon, showers and storms will be impacting most of East Texas (Image 6). These will contain very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging winds. An isolated tornado spin up is possible too.



The focus of the storms will be shifting to areas South/East of Tyler for the afternoon (Image 7). Showers and storms will continue for these areas, and the similar threats will remain—including a flash flooding threat.

As we progress into the late afternoon and early evening, storms could linger in far SE areas (Angelina/Nacogdoches/Sabine/San Augustine/Shelby counties), but should be out after sunset (Image 8).



Any rainfall after sunset is expected to be out of East Texas (Image 9).



Monday evening & night: showers and a few storms around. NO severe weather expected.

WEST TEXAS: Line of storms developing and moving east through the late night and overnight.

4-7AM Tuesday: Stronger storms increasing for East Texas. This will be from a line of storms and any t-storms that can form ahead of the line. This will impact morning commute.

7-9AM Tuesday: Storms impacting central counties (Tyler/Longview/Mineola/Gilmer/Jacksonville). Expect strong winds and very heavy rainfall.

Midday Tuesday: Storms beginning to clear western/northwestern counties, and heavy storms continuing in eastern/southern counties.

Late afternoon & early evening Tuesday: Storms exiting East Texas. Skies clearing out, windy and cooler.



The two main storm threats are damaging winds up to 70 mph and flash flooding (Image 10). Rain amounts easily can approach 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts. Due to the incredible wind energy in the atmosphere, cannot rule out an isolated tornado.


We’ll have updates throughout the evening and night and of course all morning long from 5-7AM on KETK Today & from 7-9AM on FOX51 Today.

Copyright 2015 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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